Temperature Dimensions: The Five Signals Behind the Score
Money Temperature is a 0-100 composite. Each instrument's score is the sum of five dimensions that measure different aspects of how a price move is behaving: <strong>Position, Momentum, Volume, Volatility, and Fragility</strong>. The headline number tells you how hot something is. The dimensions tell you <em>why</em> — and whether the heat is structural or fragile.
What the five dimensions measure
Each dimension answers a different question about the current price structure. A temperature of 75 looks the same on the gauge whether it comes from strong position + weak volume or the reverse — but those are very different states. Reading the dimensions is how you tell them apart.
Position (30 points max)
Where is price sitting relative to its moving average stack? Above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs simultaneously is the hottest state. Below all three is the coldest. The Z-score vs. the 200-day SMA adds a mean-reversion layer: price two standard deviations above its 200-day is stretched, and Position scores account for that.
Momentum (25 points max)
Velocity plus acceleration. Short-term rate-of-change, whether it is speeding up or slowing down (5-day ROC vs. 20-day ROC), and whether RSI confirms or diverges. A fast move accelerating with confirming RSI scores near the top; a fast move decelerating with bearish divergence scores much lower even if price is still moving.
Volume (20 points max)
Participation. OBV trend (is cumulative volume following price?), current volume vs. the 20-day average, and net conviction on up-days vs. down-days. A rally on shrinking volume is suspect — Volume flags it before Position or Momentum do.
Volatility (15 points max)
Range expansion. ATR change, Bollinger band width, and recent daily ranges relative to their 20-day average. Expanding volatility in the direction of the trend adds conviction. Expanding volatility against the trend is a warning.
Fragility (10 points max — inverse signal)
How stable the current state is. Volume dryness, Bollinger squeeze, and gap probability all push Fragility up. High Fragility scores in the Temperature model mean the setup is fragile — a coiled spring, not a supported trend. This is the dimension that catches extended moves before they break.
How to read the dimensions together
The composite temperature is useful as a quick read, but the dimension breakdown is where actionable intelligence lives:
- High score, low fragility — a move with structural support. Trend-followers should lean in.
- High score, high fragility — extended and unstable. Profit-takers should consider trim levels.
- Rising score, Position leading — price is breaking out technically before momentum and volume catch up. Early-stage move.
- Rising score, Momentum leading — price is accelerating off a base. Mid-stage.
- Falling score, Volume leading — participation is leaving. Often the first sign of a trend ending.
Why it matters
Two instruments can have the same temperature for very different reasons. A composite of 75 built on strong Position + weak Volume behaves differently from a 75 built on strong Momentum + falling Position. Regime analysis requires reading the dimensions, not just the headline. The Lab's drilldown view shows the 180-day stacked-area history of all five dimensions per instrument, so you can see which dimension drove every temperature shift.