Great numbers, falling stocks — the market has stopped rewarding even record earnings
This earnings season has a pattern, and last night showed it in its purest form yet: companies report better numbers than Wall Street expected — and their stocks fall anyway. Six earnings reactions from last Thursday's reports got their final score at Tuesday's close: four stocks were sold, one was rewarded, one ended flat. Rubrik took −17.4% — the second-deepest window in its card's life, on the largest EPS beat the card has ever recorded. Marvell's record quarter closed −12.9% and broke the only payment streak on its card. IREN closed −9.2%, Autodesk −8.5% — the deepest window in the calmest card on the board. Elastic held the evening's only payment at +10.3%, and Workday closed +2.5%: flat by the bands, exactly one dollar under the 199.38 close that would have scored it paid.
The bond sell-off is now global and it is not slowing. The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.81% this morning, its highest since November 2023, after closing at 4.80% on Tuesday. Japan's 10-year sits above 3% for a second day, a level last seen in 1996. Germany's 10-year reached 3.38%, the highest since 2011, and Britain's 10-year came within a whisker of 5.3%, territory last visited in the 2008 crisis. Yields rise when bond prices fall, so this is the same event seen from four countries: investors are selling government debt everywhere at once.