Intel · Heresies
Heresies.
Short-form opinion pieces challenging conventional investing wisdom. Written when the consensus has stopped fitting the regime — and when sticking to the textbook starts costing more than it saves.
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Nvidia: Great Company, Bad Hold — Closelook Heresy VI
Nvidia's stock leadership is episodic, not permanent — front-loaded into each architecture, then restarted by the next. Hopper did it, Blackwell did it, and a successful Rubin — the likely case on product grounds — may open a fresh leadership leg. Own the cycle, not the marriage.
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Build a Barbell — Closelook Heresy III
Markowitz, Sharpe and Value Investing are working on the wrong object. Bessembinder broke the orthodox toolkit. The barbell — QQQ+VEU long pole, Pattern 03 short pole, zero in the middle — is what survives. Live XIRR +109%.
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Don't Buy Global Stocks — Closelook Heresy II
Bessembinder 2023: 64,738 stocks, 43 markets, 31 years. 1.41% of non-US firms create all $30.7T of non-US net wealth. The median non-US stock returned −7.6%. Build a barbell.
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Don't Buy U.S. Stocks — Closelook Heresy
Four out of seven common stocks underperform Treasury bills. The best 4% explain the entire net gain since 1926. Why ‘stocks go up’ is true for the index, not the ticker.
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Tech-Free — A Flag of Inconvenience
Two decades of value-investing underperformance is no longer noise — it is a signal about the methodology. Why 'I don't do tech' was never humility.
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The First 50% Trap — Closelook Heresy
Why classical valuation metrics — and classical portfolio rules — break the moment a secular bull is real. Druckenmiller, memory chips, and the barbell.
6 heresies on file.