SMH / QQQ fragile
Semiconductor leadership vs Nasdaq
Upside β1.84
Downside β1.92
Asymmetry-0.08
Particip.0.96
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 2.40 | 1.78 | 1.84 | 1.67 |
| down β | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.92 | 1.80 |
downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetry
Market Structure · Beta Instability
Market X-Ray
The chart can be fine while participation breaks down underneath. The X-Ray measures it directly — upside beta (on up-days), downside beta (on down-days), asymmetry and instability — across the key structure pairs and 343 names in our indices. Detecting the rotation before price makes it obvious.
vs S&P 500 28% losing upside participation, 35% gaining downside fragility
vs Nasdaq-100 32% losing upside participation, 26% gaining downside fragility
Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-10 · Participation fragile — fragility rising beneath the surface
Latest read The Generals Have Followed Their Troops — the breadth warning becomes price confirmation →
Toolboxes Daily Read → Beta Instability Breadth-of-Breadth · 68 Mixed participation → Ratio-Quality → Divergence Scanner → Alert Stack → Regime Baselines → Anomaly Score → Directory →
The pairs we watch — full scores
Each pair, decomposed on up-days and down-days separately. These are the published "Troops Leaving Before the Generals" set — now confirmed by price in "The Generals Have Followed Their Troops".
XSD / QQQ fragile
Equal-weight semis vs Nasdaq
Upside β1.88
Downside β2.05
Asymmetry-0.16
Particip.0.92
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 2.26 | 1.71 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
| down β | 2.25 | 2.28 | 2.05 | 1.96 |
downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetrydownside-beta expansion (sharp)
XSD / SPY fragile
Equal-weight semis vs market
Upside β2.06
Downside β2.45
Asymmetry-0.38
Particip.0.84
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 1.80 | 1.82 | 2.06 | 2.28 |
| down β | 2.78 | 2.89 | 2.45 | 2.55 |
downside-beta expansionnegative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)downside-beta expansion (sharp)
IWM / SPY neutral
Small-cap participation
Upside β1.24
Downside β1.12
Asymmetry+0.11
Particip.1.10
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 1.75 | 1.15 | 1.24 | 1.45 |
| down β | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.22 |
early beta improvement
RSP / SPY neutral
S&P 500 equal-weight participation
Upside β0.77
Downside β0.77
Asymmetry+0.00
Particip.1.00
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 0.54 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| down β | 0.78 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
negative beta asymmetryupside participation deteriorating (sharp)
HYG / SPY neutral
Credit confirmation
Upside β0.28
Downside β0.21
Asymmetry+0.07
Particip.1.32
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 0.42 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| down β | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.18 |
ARKK / QQQ neutral
Speculative-growth appetite
Upside β1.55
Downside β1.54
Asymmetry+0.02
Particip.1.01
| horizon | 21d | 63d | 126d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| up β | 1.27 | 1.40 | 1.55 | 1.52 |
| down β | 1.56 | 1.48 | 1.54 | 1.78 |
upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
Participation breadth — by index (vs S&P 500)
lake 1641 names 28% losing upside participation, 33% gaining downside fragility rubin 101 names 19% losing upside participation, 65% gaining downside fragility halo 100 names 23% losing upside participation, 38% gaining downside fragility agentic 98 names 56% losing upside participation, 38% gaining downside fragility euro-ai 65 names 14% losing upside participation, 38% gaining downside fragility etfs 13 names 31% losing upside participation, 31% gaining downside fragility
Want a specific name? Open the X-Ray Directory → — search, sort and open any of 2018 names on the full toolbox vs SPY & Nasdaq.
How to read it
For each pair (asset vs benchmark), returns are split into the benchmark's up-days and down-days. Upside β is participation in rallies; downside β is vulnerability in selloffs; asymmetry (up − down) and the participation ratio (up ÷ down) say whether an asset captures more upside than downside. Read across 21 / 63 / 126 / 252 days: a sharp drop at the short horizon while the long looks fine is the early warning.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Scores are relative and descriptive. Cross-read with the Money Temperature regime.