Market X-Ray · Toolbox 4
Dynamic Divergence Scanner
The classic divergence is price making a new high while RSI does not. This is the market-structure version: the index rises, but equal-weight breadth, credit, small-caps and concentration don't confirm. Each relationship is scored on how unusually large the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether the other toolboxes agree — then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score and a regime read.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-09-14
By family
Alerts — non-confirmations & clusters
XLK is weak over 21 days while IGV/XLK is improving (-7% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- XLK -3.4% vs IGV/XLK +3.9% over 21d
- Gap -7% · z -1.22 · 21d
- 1d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 63 days while IWM/SPY has not confirmed (+7.4% gap) — Large-cap strength is not confirmed by small-cap participation.
- SPY +2.8% vs IWM/SPY -4.2% over 63d
- Gap +7.4% · z 0.98 · 63d
- 0d active · Worsening · confirmed by 3 modules
XLK is weak over 21 days while AIQ/XLK is improving (-5% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- XLK -3.4% vs AIQ/XLK +1.7% over 21d
- Gap -5% · z -1.22 · 21d
- 1d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 63 days while SPHB/SPLV has not confirmed (+6.5% gap) — The rally is not led by high-beta — defensives are quietly leading.
- SPY +2.8% vs SPHB/SPLV -3.4% over 63d
- Gap +6.5% · z 1.82 · 63d
- 0d active · Worsening · confirmed by 1 module
SPY has risen over 63 days while MDY/SPY has not confirmed (+8.8% gap) — Mid-caps are not confirming large-cap strength.
- SPY +2.8% vs MDY/SPY -5.5% over 63d
- Gap +8.8% · z 0.48 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 2 modules
3 of 7 breadth relationships are diverging at once — a clustered, not isolated, non-confirmation.
- 3 active divergences
- Family score 51/100 (Diverging)
SPY has risen over 63 days while XMAG/SPY has not confirmed (+5.1% gap) — The index is rising without the 493 stocks outside the Mag-7.
- SPY +2.8% vs XMAG/SPY -2.2% over 63d
- Gap +5.1% · z 0.04 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 2 modules
SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+5% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
- SPY +2.8% vs XLY/XLP -2.1% over 63d
- Gap +5% · z -0.09 · 63d
- 0d active · Emerging · confirmed by 1 module
Every relationship — scanned
| Divergence | Dir | Severity | Gap | z | Days | State | Confirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software divergence XLK vs IGV/XLK | ▲ bull | 64 | -7% | -1.22 | 1 | Worsening | 1× |
| Small-cap divergence SPY vs IWM/SPY | ▼ bear | 59 | +7.4% | 0.98 | 0 | Worsening | 3× |
| AI divergence XLK vs AIQ/XLK | ▲ bull | 59 | -5% | -1.22 | 1 | Worsening | 1× |
| High-beta divergence SPY vs SPHB/SPLV | ▼ bear | 58 | +6.5% | 1.82 | 0 | Worsening | 1× |
| Mid-cap divergence SPY vs MDY/SPY | ▼ bear | 53 | +8.8% | 0.48 | 0 | Emerging | 2× |
| S&P ex-Mag-7 divergence SPY vs XMAG/SPY | ▼ bear | 42 | +5.1% | 0.04 | 0 | Emerging | 2× |
| Consumer risk divergence SPY vs XLY/XLP | ▼ bear | 37 | +5% | -0.09 | 0 | Emerging | 1× |
| S&P 500 breadth divergence SPY vs RSP/SPY | · none | 0 | -0.9% | -0.5 | — | No divergence | 3× |
| Nasdaq breadth divergence QQQ vs QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | -0.8% | -0.43 | — | No divergence | 3× |
| Nasdaq lower-70 divergence QQQ vs QNXT/QTOP | · none | 0 | +1.4% | -0.1 | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Credit divergence SPY vs HYG/LQD | · none | 0 | -2.8% | -1.23 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Small-cap upside-beta failure SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Nasdaq breadth beta failure QQQ vs β QQQE/QQQ | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Credit beta failure SPY vs β HYG/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Breadth-momentum divergence SPY vs Breadth-of-Breadth | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| S&P ex-tech divergence SPY vs SPXT/SPY | · none | 0 | -2.4% | -0.9 | — | No divergence | 2× |
| S&P concentration SPY vs SPY/RSP | · none | 0 | -0.9% | -0.5 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QQQ/QQQE | · none | 0 | -0.8% | -0.43 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Top-30 Nasdaq concentration QQQ vs QTOP/QNXT | · none | 0 | +1.4% | -0.1 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Cyclical divergence SPY vs XLI/XLU | · none | 0 | +1.6% | 0.27 | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semiconductor divergence QQQ vs SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | +1.8% | 0.45 | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Small-cap downside-beta warning SPY vs β IWM/SPY | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 2× |
| Semis leadership-exhaustion beta SMH vs β SMH/XLK | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 2× |
| S&P price-momentum divergence SPY vs SPY momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Nasdaq vol-adjusted divergence QQQ vs QQQ momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
| Semis efficiency divergence SMH vs SMH momentum | · none | 0 | — | — | — | No divergence | 1× |
How to read it
For each rule a primary price index is compared with a confirmation structure series. Returns are direction-normalised (a rising concentration ratio counts as bearish), so the divergence gap = primary return − normalised confirmation return is positive whenever the headline is outrunning what's underneath. The gap is z-scored against its own 252-day history; severity blends magnitude (vs a horizon target), that historical extremeness, persistence (days the divergence has held), importance, 21d/63d agreement, and how many other toolboxes (Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability) confirm. Bearish = index up while structure fails; bullish = index weak while structure quietly improves. NH marks a new-high non-confirmation.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Cross-reads with Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Beta-Instability X-Ray.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-09-14
Quick answers
What does the Dynamic Divergence Scanner track?
It scans whether the headline index (S&P 500 / Nasdaq-100) is trending one way while the structure beneath it — breadth, credit, small-caps, concentration — trends the other. Each relationship is severity-scored on how unusual the gap is versus its own history, how long it has persisted, and whether other toolboxes agree, then rolled into one Global Divergence Risk Score.
What is the Global Divergence Risk Score right now?
As of 2026-09-14, the Global Divergence Risk Score is 27, labeled "mild", in a "Leadership exhaustion" regime.
How many divergences are currently active?
As of 2026-09-14, 7 divergences are active — 5 bearish (index up, structure not confirming) and 2 bullish (index weak, structure improving).
How is a divergence’s severity scored?
The divergence gap (primary index return minus direction-normalised confirmation return) is z-scored against its own 252-day history. Severity blends that magnitude and historical extremeness with persistence (days active), importance, 21-day/63-day agreement, and how many other toolboxes — Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality, Beta-Instability — confirm the same read.