— C+

Market X-Ray · Toolbox 6 · Cross-Toolbox Scoring

Market Structure Alert Stack

Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters: do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.

Master Market-Structure Risk 73 high
Top-priority signal Narrowing participation Regime: Early broadening (bullish)

Updated daily · data as of 2026-06-10

Confirmed clusters 1 ≥2 toolboxes agree
Alert clusters 7 by market implication
Raw alerts 27 across all four tools
Dominant Narrowing participation top-priority implication

The stack — ranked, confirmed clusters

1
Narrowing participation bearish
63 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 3/4 confirm · 7 alerts
  • Ratio-Quality100 Mid-Cap Breadth rising mainly because SPY fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
  • Ratio-Quality99 Micro-Cap Breadth falling on IWC weakness — IWC dropping faster than IWM, a high-quality warning.
  • Ratio-Quality87 AI Participation falling on AIQ weakness — AIQ dropping faster than XLK, a high-quality warning.
  • Beta57 SPXT/SPY: decoupling
  • Divergence55 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPXT/SPY has not confirmed (+13.2% gap) — Non-tech S&P 500 is not keeping pace with the headline.
  • Ratio-Quality54 Cyclical Breadth falling on XLI weakness — XLI dropping faster than XLU, a high-quality warning.
  • Divergence52 SPY has risen over 63 days while RSP/SPY has not confirmed (+9.6% gap) — S&P 500 headline strength is not confirmed by the average (equal-weight) stock.
2
Broadening participation bullish
60 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Divergence75 QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQE/QQQ is improving (-5.8% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
  • Divergence74 QQQ is weak over 21 days while QNXT/QTOP is improving (-8.6% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
3
Early recovery bullish
59 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Divergence68 QQQ is weak over 21 days while QTOP/QNXT is improving (-8.6% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
  • Divergence65 QQQ is weak over 21 days while QQQ/QQQE is improving (-5.8% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
4
Risk-off / credit non-confirmation bearish
57 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Divergence57 SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+9.7% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
5
Mega-cap concentration bearish
48 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 1 alert
  • Divergence46 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPY/RSP has not confirmed (+9.6% gap) — The S&P advance is becoming more dependent on the cap-weighted mega-caps.
6
Leadership exhaustion bearish
48 moderate
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 2 alerts
  • Divergence60 XLK has risen over 63 days while IGV/XLK has not confirmed (+48.5% gap) — Software is not confirming broad-tech strength.
  • Divergence59 XLK has risen over 63 days while AIQ/XLK has not confirmed (+29% gap) — The AI basket is not confirming broad-tech leadership.
7
Hidden fragility bearish
41 watch
BetaBreadthRatio-QualityDivergence 1/4 confirm · 12 alerts
  • Beta68 XSD/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta66 XSD/SPY: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
  • Beta48 SMH/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry
  • Beta40 IGV/XLK: neutral — early beta improvement
  • Beta38 ARKK/QQQ: neutral — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta37 QNXT/QQQ: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta28 RSP/SPY: neutral — negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta19 QTOP/QQQ: neutral — downside-beta expansion
  • Beta6 XMAG/SPY: healthy-leader — upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta6 SMH/XLK: fragile — negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
  • Beta5 IWM/SPY: neutral — early beta improvement
  • Beta4 QQQE/QQQ: neutral — negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)

How to read it

Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication (narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend: base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit), regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening (0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.

For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Built on Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner.