- Ratio-Quality100 Internet Participation rising mainly because XLK fell sharply — a mechanically misleading improvement.
- Ratio-Quality100 Nasdaq Ex-Top-30 Breadth falling on QNXT weakness — QNXT dropping faster than QTOP, a high-quality warning.
- Ratio-Quality100 Semiconductor Leadership falling on SMH weakness — SMH dropping faster than XLK, a high-quality warning.
- Ratio-Quality100 Mid-Cap Breadth falling on MDY weakness — MDY dropping faster than SPY, a high-quality warning.
- Ratio-Quality100 Small-Cap Breadth falling on IWM weakness — IWM dropping faster than SPY, a high-quality warning.
- Breadth73 Participation is contracting across multiple breadth proxies — the market may be shifting from broad advance to narrow leadership or distribution.
- Divergence59 SPY has risen over 63 days while IWM/SPY has not confirmed (+7.4% gap) — Large-cap strength is not confirmed by small-cap participation.
- Divergence53 SPY has risen over 63 days while MDY/SPY has not confirmed (+8.8% gap) — Mid-caps are not confirming large-cap strength.
- Beta50 IGV/XLK: decoupling
- Beta44 QTOP/QQQ: decoupling
- Divergence42 SPY has risen over 63 days while XMAG/SPY has not confirmed (+5.1% gap) — The index is rising without the 493 stocks outside the Mag-7.
Market X-Ray · Toolbox 6 · Cross-Toolbox Scoring
Market Structure Alert Stack
Four toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — each raise their own alerts. On their own they're noise. This layer asks the only question that matters: do they agree? It clusters every alert by what it implies for the market and scores each cluster by how many independent tools confirm it — turning dozens of isolated signals into one ranked stack and a single Master Risk Score.
Updated daily · data as of 2026-09-14
The stack — ranked, confirmed clusters
- Divergence58 SPY has risen over 63 days while SPHB/SPLV has not confirmed (+6.5% gap) — The rally is not led by high-beta — defensives are quietly leading.
- Divergence37 SPY has risen over 63 days while XLY/XLP has not confirmed (+5% gap) — Discretionary is not outperforming staples — a cautious consumer.
- Divergence64 XLK is weak over 21 days while IGV/XLK is improving (-7% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- Divergence59 XLK is weak over 21 days while AIQ/XLK is improving (-5% gap) — a constructive (bullish) non-confirmation.
- Beta75 IWM/SPY: distribution — negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
- Beta59 QQQE/QQQ: distribution — negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
- Beta50 MDY/SPY: distribution — upside-beta collapse, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
- Beta45 QNXT/QQQ: distribution — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance
- Beta43 RSP/SPY: distribution — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
- Beta27 HYG/SPY: distribution — upside-beta collapse, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp)
- Beta55 XSD/SPY: neutral — downside-beta expansion, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
- Beta37 SPXT/SPY: neutral — upside-beta collapse, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
- Beta33 SMH/XLK: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, beta-adjusted underperformance, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
- Beta32 ARKK/QQQ: neutral — early beta improvement, downside-beta expansion (sharp)
- Beta27 XSD/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
- Beta26 SMH/QQQ: fragile — downside-beta expansion, negative beta asymmetry, upside participation deteriorating (sharp), downside-beta expansion (sharp)
- Beta12 XMAG/SPY: neutral — downside-beta expansion (sharp)
How to read it
Every toolbox's alerts are normalised into one schema and mapped to a market implication (narrowing, risk-off, leadership exhaustion, hidden fragility, broadening…). Alerts that imply the same thing form a cluster, scored by the spec blend: base severity (0.25), toolbox confirmation (0.20, how many of the four agree), independence (0.15, distinct evidence types — price vs beta vs breadth vs credit), regime relevance (0.15), persistence (0.10), worsening (0.10) and importance (0.05). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools is a high-conviction read; one tool alone is a watch item. The Master Risk Score tracks the top cluster, lifted when several distinct bearish clusters fire at once.
For information and discussion only — a reading of market internals, not investment advice. Thresholds are uncalibrated pending the planned backtest. Built on Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-09-14
Quick answers
What does the Market Structure Alert Stack show?
It fuses alerts from four independent Market X-Ray toolboxes — Beta-Instability, Breadth-of-Breadth, Ratio-Quality and the Divergence Scanner — into clusters by market implication, then scores each cluster by how many of the four tools confirm it. The result is one Master Market-Structure Risk Score and a ranked, de-duplicated alert stack.
What is the Master Market-Structure Risk Score right now?
As of 2026-09-14, the Master Market-Structure Risk Score is 87, labeled "critical".
How many alert clusters are confirmed by multiple toolboxes?
As of 2026-09-14, 1 of 5 alert clusters are confirmed by two or more toolboxes, out of 28 raw alerts across all four tools.
How is a cluster’s score calculated?
Each cluster blends base severity (25%), toolbox confirmation (20%, how many of the four tools agree), independence of evidence (15%), regime relevance (15%), persistence (10%), worsening (10%) and importance (5%). A cluster confirmed by three independent tools reads as high-conviction; one tool alone is a watch item.