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The Morning 10

The Morning 10 Thu, Jul 9, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

One session, full reversal: SOXX reclaimed 554, NVDA closed back above 200, and the money that fled memory on Tuesday spent Wednesday buying it back — with a 28-billion-dollar footprint. The day in ten.

  1. Overnight — Korea's gap, and the fade
  2. The referee reversed the call
  3. The 28-billion-dollar dip-buy — SK Hynix's ADR
  4. Broadcom's Apple deal — custom silicon, the other side
  5. Semis and software — yin and yang
  6. Ceasefire declared over
  7. FOMC minutes — hikes entered the conversation
  8. China's two-speed prices
  9. The barbell swapped sides
  10. Outside view — Jeremy Grantham
  1. Overnight — Korea's gap, and the fade Context
    What
    Korea gapped hard at Thursday's open — the Kospi opened around +3.3% with SK Hynix up as much as +7% — then faded through the session toward flat-to-lower near the close, with Hynix still holding roughly +3% while Samsung gave its bounce back. Japan +1.4%; Hong Kong −1.2%, handing back Wednesday's rally. Bitcoin ~62.2k and gold ~4,080 — both drifting toward their belief lines at 60k and 4,000.
    If
    Korea's fade stabilises before its close — or the gap-and-fade pattern repeats on the ADR debut.
    Why
    a violent gap up that fades is two crowds disagreeing at size — the dip-buyers showed up, and the profit-takers met them.
    Then
    watch whether the US session sides with the open or the fade; live tape on the market-structure desk.

    Live tape · market-structure desk →

  2. The referee reversed the call Structure
    What
    The 554 break lasted exactly one session: SOXX rose +1.9% and closed back above the line at 562. NVDA did more — +3.7% to 204.1, back above 200, well clear of the 191 line it defended Tuesday. The whole complex went with it: SMH +2.0%, TSM +1.0%, Micron +1.1%.
    If
    the reclaim holds a second session, with the Hynix debut as the live test.
    Why
    one-day breaks that snap straight back are the signature of forced selling absorbed by size — a shakeout, not a top. The two lines we published Monday have now both resolved bullish.
    Then
    the structure read and levels on the SOXX asset page.

    Structure Lab →

  3. The 28-billion-dollar dip-buy — SK Hynix's ADR Calendar
    What
    SK Hynix closed the books on its ~$28 billion ADR offering Wednesday — covered multiple times over, per Reuters — with the ADRs set to float on Nasdaq tomorrow. Offering-linked dollar-selling pushed the won to a one-month high. The largest memory maker sold tens of billions of new exposure INTO the worst memory week of the quarter, and institutions oversubscribed it.
    If
    the debut trades above the offer price on Friday.
    Why
    Tuesday's question was whether the marginal memory buyer was gone. A multiple-times-covered $28B book is a direct answer: the repricing was positioning, not thesis-death — and the listing is the memory supercycle's first public stress test at scale.
    Then
    the memory complex read on the HBM pulse.

    Memory / HBM Pulse →

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