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The Morning 10

The Morning 10 Mon, Jul 13, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

Two sessions after the largest foreign US listing on record, Korea took it back: a Kospi drop steep enough to trigger a program-trading halt, SK Hynix −12%, and the first DRAM price decline since September to give the selling a number. Taiwan stayed green — and oil is finally buying the war. The day in ten.

  1. Overnight — Korea's sidecar morning
  2. The trigger has a number — memory's first price crack
  3. SKHY — session three, back at the offer price
  4. Oil buys the war now
  5. The belief lines get their retest
  6. Futures split the tape — the pressure is addressed to tech
  7. Weekly Signal, day one — the week attacks the signal immediately
  8. Tuesday, everything prints at once — now with a mood
  9. Japan puts the yen carry trade back on the screen
  10. Outside view — Munster's evidence, revisited
  1. Overnight — Korea's sidecar morning Context
    What
    The Kospi fell as deep as −7.8% before steadying near −7.3% in late trade — steep enough to trigger the sell-side sidecar, Korea's five-minute program-trading halt — with SK Hynix −12% and Samsung −9%. Japan closed −2.1%, Shanghai traded −2.2%. But Taiwan held green and Hong Kong flat: the epicenter is memory, not Asia.
    If
    Taiwan and Hong Kong finish green while Korea closes at its lows, the divergence confirms a one-trade unwind.
    Why
    A Korea-concentrated selloff reads as a positioning event in the memory trade, not a regional risk-off — the wider the divergence, the more contained the damage.
    Then
    Watch the Kospi close (08:30 CET) and whether US futures narrow or widen the gap into the European open.
  2. The trigger has a number — memory's first price crack Structure
    What
    Korea's June DRAM export unit price fell −4% month-over-month — the first decline since September — with SSD prices −5%, even as June semiconductor exports set a record at $44.8 billion, up nearly 200% year-over-year. Foreign investors sold roughly $1.5 billion of Korean chip stocks into the print.
    If
    Micron opens heavy against its ~$992 Friday close and can't reclaim the opening loss, the read jumps the Pacific.
    Why
    Friday's edition carried memory's three price tags — Micron at a $1.12 trillion market cap, ten times its 52-week low. A first falling price print is exactly the data point the peak-memory side was waiting for; record volume at falling prices is how cycles roll over.
    Then
    Watch MU and Sandisk at the US open, and the HBM names inside the Rubin build-out's Layer 3.
  3. SKHY — session three, back at the offer price Structure
    What
    SK Hynix's Seoul line fell −12% overnight, two sessions after the ADR priced at $149 — a premium — and raised $26.5 billion in the largest US listing by a foreign company on record. SKHY closed Friday at $168.31, +13% above the offer; Seoul's move implies a New York open near, possibly below, the $149 line.
    If
    SKHY opens below $149 and stays there, the record listing is underwater in session three.
    Why
    That would be the market's sell-the-news verdict on the memory trade's marquee transaction — and a sentiment marker every allocator who took stock will feel.
    Then
    Watch $149 at the New York open; a hold above it keeps the listing itself as the support line.

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A daily overview, not advice — an investment diary. Published every trading morning at 08:00 CET. See the Daily Pulse and today’s check-in.