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The Morning 10

The Morning 10 Wed, Jul 15, 2026 ~90 seconds 08:00 CET

The referee answered in a different currency: ASML beat its own guidance on every line this morning — €9.3 billion in sales, 54% gross margin — and printed no bookings number at all; the answer came as capacity, 30% more EUV output planned for 2027. Behind it, day two of signal week reclaimed the floor — SOXX closed fourteen points back above 554 — and SK Hynix went from near its offer price to a post-debut high, up 27%. The day in ten.

  1. ASML — the referee answers with capacity, not a bookings number
  2. Signal week, day two — SOXX reclaims the floor
  3. SK Hynix +27% — from the offer price to a post-debut high in one session
  4. The complex confirms — semis lead a day after being the epicenter
  5. The IBM re-sort completes — legacy down again, cyber through records
  6. The Rubin lens — damage concentrated, repair concentrated
  7. Cross-asset — the disinflation trade holds its move
  8. Thursday's prints — TSMC hesitates into its number
  9. Euro-AI — Europe sat out both the washout and the reversal
  10. Outside view — SemiAnalysis, on why weeks like this resolve upward
  1. ASML — the referee answers with capacity, not a bookings number Calendar
    What
    ASML's Q2, out this morning: €9.3 billion net sales against its own €8.4–9.0 billion guide, 54.0% gross margin against 51–52% guided, EPS €7.59. No net-bookings figure — the second consecutive quarterly release without one. Instead: order intake "remained extremely strong" in the first half, a plan to add 30% to this year's low-NA EUV capacity of around 65 systems for 2027, and a Q3 guide that steps up to €11.0–12.0 billion.
    If
    Amsterdam holds the beat through the 09:00 CET open and into the US session, the memory-capex question IBM raised on Monday gets its supply-side answer: the cycle is accelerating, not cracking.
    Why
    The Print Record's read on ASML is that the stock prices the order book, not the quarter — and with the bookings line retired, capacity plans and the Q3 step-up are the order book's proxy.
    Then
    Watch the Amsterdam open and today's US session against the ±3% three-day band the Print Record scores; the reaction, not the print, is the data.

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  2. Signal week, day two — SOXX reclaims the floor Index
    What
    SOXX closed 567.92, up 2.6% — fourteen points back above the 554 floor it had closed forty cents beneath on Monday. It opened at 580.36, within ten points of the 590 shelf, and faded through the session without ever threatening the floor.
    If
    The reclaim holds through the ASML and TSMC reactions, Monday reads as a floor test that passed — and the bear branch of the signal loses its foothold.
    Why
    Day one closed on the line; day two answered it. The 2×2 matrix scores on Sunday, but the week's shape — test, reclaim, two prints to go — is forming.
    Then
    590 is now the live line: a close above it before Friday flips the signal toward its breakout branch.

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  3. SK Hynix +27% — from the offer price to a post-debut high in one session Structure
    What
    SK Hynix's US line rose 27.3% to 193.92, its highest close since the Nasdaq debut — one day after touching 151.30, within $2.30 of the $149 offer. The trigger was hard news: 12-layer HBM4 in mass production and shipping to Nvidia for its next-generation platform, with volume expanding from September. Barclays initiated at Overweight the same day with a $330 target — roughly double where the stock traded as the note landed — arguing gross margins have near-term upside and that 2027 revenue will come in materially above consensus on HBM pricing. Newly launched leveraged single-stock ETFs and first-day options trading amplified the move.
    If
    SKHY holds the 190s through Korea's next sessions, the memory unwind's epicenter has reversed inside the listing's first full week.
    Why
    Certified HBM4 shipping into the next Nvidia platform is demand confirmation of the most literal kind — and it landed the same week the marquee memory listing nearly broke its deal price.
    Then
    Watch whether the follow-on stays broad across the memory chain or concentrates in the name the new ETFs lever.

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