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The Morning 10

The Morning 10 Thu, Jul 16, 2026 ~90 seconds 09:45 CET

TSMC answered with everything — $40.2 billion in revenue at the very top of its own guide, both margins above their guided ranges, a 77% profit jump to a record — and the first tick was red: the ADR indicated about one percent lower, into a morning where Seoul had already sold the memory chain hard. That is this week's tape in one line: record numbers, reluctant buyers. Behind it, Wednesday broke the 554 semiconductor floor intraday and closed back above it, the rotation found its rate story, and gold still cannot get off the 4,000 line. The day in ten.

  1. TSMC — a record on every line, and the first tick was red
  2. Signal week, day three — the floor broke intraday and closed reclaimed
  3. The rotation got a rate story — financials at the highs, discretionary and comms bid
  4. Memory re-cracked — and Seoul extended it into the print
  5. Cyber's records rejected on first touch — outside days across the board
  6. Gold cannot get off the 4,000 line — the hedge that stopped hedging
  7. ±3% sector days are the new normal — three arguments running inside each complex
  8. IBM at the 52-week low — the re-sort's third leg down
  9. Tonight: Netflix prints from a downtrend — and the Tesla card queues
  10. Outside view — Jurrien Timmer, on gold and bitcoin as the same trade
  1. TSMC — a record on every line, and the first tick was red Calendar
    What
    Q2, out this morning: revenue of $40.2 billion, up 33.7% year over year and at the very top of the company's own $39.0–40.2 billion guide; EPS of $4.31 against estimates near $3.90; gross margin 67.7% and operating margin 60.3%, both above their guided ranges; net profit up 77% to a record NT$706.6 billion. Advanced nodes took 77% of wafer revenue. The ADR's first indication after the release: down about one percent.
    If
    The −1% indication is where the US session settles, the print lands as the ninth double-beat of ten that the tape declined to pay for — flat, in the Print Record's bands.
    Why
    Beat or miss is not what this stock trades on — the card published before the print said exactly that. The number that decides the reaction is the capex guide: twenty-four hours after ASML added 30% EUV capacity for 2027, TSMC's spend line says whether the wafers are coming to pay for the tools. The January baseline is $52–56 billion, high end; the call is live now.
    Then
    Watch the capex line out of the conference and the US open against the card's record: the two heaviest AI-era prints each fell 4.5% after clean double beats.

    Open the detail →

  2. Signal week, day three — the floor broke intraday and closed reclaimed Index
    What
    SOXX fell 2.2% to 555.27 — but the number that matters is the path: it traded as low as 538.53, more than fifteen points below the 554 floor, and closed a dollar and twenty-seven cents back above it. Three days into signal week, every close has now landed on or within a few points of the line: forty cents below Monday, fourteen points above Tuesday, a dollar above Wednesday.
    If
    Today's TSMC reaction holds the floor again, the week walks into Friday with the line tested three ways — close, reclaim, intraday break — and held each time.
    Why
    An intraday break that cannot hold to the close is the strongest form of a level defense; sellers had the floor broken and could not keep it.
    Then
    Friday's close decides the week; Sunday scores it into the track record. The 590 shelf is 35 points away — the breakout branch needs a print-driven day to reach it.

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  3. The rotation got a rate story — financials at the highs, discretionary and comms bid Structure
    What
    The sector board split cleanly along rate sensitivity: communication services rose 1.7%, consumer discretionary 0.9% with Amazon up 3.0%, and financials 0.7% — XLF tagged a 52-week high intraday and closed within half a percent of it. Tech was the worst sector at −1.1%. The backdrop: CPI at −0.4% and PPI at −0.3% landed inside the same 24 hours, both cooler than expected.
    If
    June retail sales (14:30 CET today) confirm the consumer is holding while inflation rolls over, the lower-rates-ahead trade has its third data point in three days.
    Why
    Two cooling inflation prints in a row reprice the rate path lower — and the sectors that borrow, lend, and sell to the consumer are the direct beneficiaries. Money leaving semis did not leave the market; it moved to the rate-sensitives.
    Then
    Watch whether XLF holds the breakout level and whether discretionary's bid survives a retail-sales surprise in either direction.

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