Weekly Signal · · 11 min read
Gold's Buyer Base Has Changed
Gold's Buyer Base Has Changed
Gold has turned negative on the year — and the sharper tell is who stopped buying. Central-bank demand slowed from its extreme pace, Chinese and Indian jewelry demand fell as prices ran too high, and at the margin gold was increasingly owned by the same speculative crowd that had been chasing Bitcoin. Three demand channels softening at once is the real risk. Yet price has pulled back to the lower edge of the multi-year channel — a rule-based buy for us — so we are starting to reinitiate.
Gold is turning negative on the year. And it is not simply weakening. The buyer base has changed.
For much of the move since summer 2025, gold was being bought not only as a traditional inflation hedge or crisis-protection asset. It was increasingly being bought by the same type of marginal buyer who had been buying Bitcoin: investors chasing scarcity, liquidity, protection against currency debasement, and upside momentum.
That changed the nature of the trade. Gold started to behave less like a classic defensive asset and more like a speculative risk-on liquidity asset. That helped it on the way up. But it also makes the current breakdown more dangerous.
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