Rivian, Read as a Software Story Wearing a Truck

Down roughly 85% from its IPO, Rivian is easy to file under "failed EV story." Mulberry's Louis Stavropoulos argues the more interesting read is what has changed underneath. The second-generation trucks collapsed the electronics from seventeen control units to three — a zonal architecture that sits at the heart of both the cost case and the software case — and Volkswagen has put real money behind it: $5.8bn into a joint venture, plus a further $1bn unlocked after successful winter testing.

The figure that reframes the story is software and services: up about 221% in 2025 to roughly $1.56bn, now near 29% of revenue, and enough to lift the company to its first consolidated gross profit. The cheaper R2 is the swing factor — targeted at around half the build cost of the R1, with the Illinois plant scaled toward ~215,000 units a year — and an Uber commitment of up to $1.25bn toward as many as 50,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis turns the hardware into a platform. The premortem is honest: the R1 still loses money per unit, and the whole case rests on the ramp actually executing.

The core idea The bet isn't "EVs win" — it's that Rivian's value migrates from selling trucks to the software, services and autonomy layered on top, the way the market is repricing every hardware maker by its recurring-revenue line.

Where it fits

It rhymes with what our Agentic Demand work tracks in the physical layer — autonomy and software turning a manufacturer into a recurring-revenue platform, the hardware-to-service shift we keep returning to. Featured for the framing, not as our own call.