Weekly Signal · · 7 min read
The Tape Split in Two
Software week, semi wreck — the tape split in two, and the calendar behind it raises the stakes.
5 July 2026 · closes through Jul 2 — U.S. markets were closed Jul 3–4.
What the week actually did
The headline indices hid the real story. The S&P 500 added +2.2% and the equal-weight version matched it (RSP +2.2%) — participation was broad. The Dow gained +2.0%, the Nasdaq Composite +2.3%. But the Nasdaq-100 made only +0.9%, and small caps fell (IWM −0.7%). An up week for almost everything — except the two ends of the barbell where this site lives.
| Sector (SPDR) | Week |
|---|---|
| Financials (XLF) | +3.8% |
| Communications (XLC) | +3.2% |
| Discretionary (XLY) | +2.4% |
| Health Care (XLV) | +2.1% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +1.5% |
| Materials (XLB) | +0.8% |
| Staples (XLP) | +0.3% |
| Technology (XLK) | −0.3% |
| Utilities (XLU) | −1.0% |
| Energy (XLE) | −1.1% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | −1.2% |
Ten weeks out of ten this ordering would read "risk-on rotation": banks and communications on top, bond proxies at the bottom — consistent with TLT −2.1% (yields up), which also explains utilities and real estate at the tail. The anomaly is technology printing red in a +2% market week.
The Nasdaq cuts we track sharpen it:
| Cut | Week |
|---|---|
| Top 20 US (TOPT) | +2.6% |
| N100 ex-Tech (QQXT) | +2.2% |
| N100 equal weight (QQQE) | +1.2% |
| N100 Top 30 (QTOP) | +1.0% |
| N100 Tech (QTEC) | −0.4% |
Read it bottom-up: inside the Nasdaq-100, everything that is not technology had a strong week; equal weight beat the top-30, so breadth improved within the index; and the mega-cap complex itself was fine — as long as it wasn't a semiconductor. The drag is not "big tech". It is specifically chips.
Elsewhere: Bitcoin +4.5% through the weekend, Europe strong (FEZ +2.8%), gold +1.2%, the dollar slightly soft (−0.4%), China and Japan quiet. And the one that matters for framing: volatility fell (VIXY −6.2%). A violent rotation with a falling VIX is repositioning, not de-risking — nobody paid up for protection while it happened.
C — free account
The free C account unlocks the full Weekly Signal — the complete read and its scoring.
One tap with Google or one email — no password, no card. You are signed in until you sign out, on this browser, from then on.
Join the Look — freeAlready joined on this browser? The full edition shows automatically — if it doesn't, sign in again here. Looking for the archive, portfolios and realtime? That is C+.