Asia’s chip rally fades into the close: Kospi touches 7,171 and ends under 7,000, Nikkei −1.2% on a 153 yen — and Lenovo drops 6%, Z.ai 10% in Hong Kong
Asia had a second session to itself before Wall Street reopens, and it did not hold what it started. Korea opened the way Monday ended: the Kospi crossed 7,000 at the open for the first time since July 23, climbed as far as 7,171 by early afternoon with SK hynix up 5.2% at 1,876,000 won, and then sold off into the close, finishing at 6,974.85, down 0.3%, with SK hynix at 1,797,000, up 0.8%, Samsung Electronics up 0.2% and Hanmi Semiconductor up 2.3%. Foreign and institutional investors were the buyers and retail investors sold more than 2 trillion won into the strength. Japan was weak from the open and stayed weak. The yen strengthened to 153.5 per dollar, its best level since February and past the peak it reached after July’s joint intervention, on the idea that the Bank of Japan raises rates on September 18 after wages grew 4.7% in July. The Nikkei closed at 65,596.37, down 1.2%, and the names that led Monday’s rally led Tuesday’s giveback: Murata −7.0%, Sumco −6.8%, Ibiden −5.9%, Disco −5.0%, Kioxia −2.8%, Tokyo Electron −2.6%, with Toyota and Honda down 3% to 4% on the currency.
Asia’s chip rally fades into the close: Kospi touches 7,171 and ends under 7,000, Nikkei −1.2% on a 153 yen — and Lenovo drops 6%, Z.ai 10% in Hong Kong
1 Seoul: Kospi crosses 7,000 at the open, touches 7,171, closes at 6,975 — SK hynix from +5.2% to +0.8%, retail selling 2.4 trillion won into the rally
2 Tokyo gives Monday back: Nikkei −1.2% to 65,596 on a 153 yen, Murata −7.0%, Sumco −6.8%, Ibiden −5.9%, Disco −5.0% — SoftBank +6.3% the exception
3 Hong Kong sells AI: Lenovo −6.3%, Z.ai −10.4% after Jefferies cuts its multiple, MiniMax −6%, ASMPT −3.1%, SMIC −3.2%
4 Our indices recomputed on Monday’s Asian closes: Rubin +1.5% to 1,972 (up 92% this year), memory layer +2.5%, substrates +3.7%; Agentic Winners −0.8%, Euro-AI +0.6%
5 Gold $4,465 after Monday’s slide, silver +0.7%, copper at a record $6.77
6 Bitcoin $78,476, down 1.5%, sitting on yesterday’s $78,000 line; ether $2,470, Solana $103
7 Currencies: yen at 153.8 after a seven-month high of 153.5, past the July intervention peak; won 1,342; dollar index at a two-week low of 98.8
8 Bonds: the 10-year reopens at 4.79%, the 2-year at 4.38% is the number; Fed hike priced at 60%, PPI Thursday, CPI Friday
9 Premarket: S&P futures −0.2%, Dow −0.8%, Nasdaq +0.2%, VIX 15.3; Brent $98.35 (+2.2%) after the Gulf tanker exchange
10 Today’s close grades Broadcom (356.22 line), Snowflake (315.02) and HPE (53.42); Oracle reports Thursday, not Tuesday; Adobe, ECB and PPI Thursday, CPI Friday
Producer prices Thursday, consumer prices Friday, and fed funds futures already put a quarter-point Fed hike on September 16 at about 60%. Our structural inflation monitor reads 49 out of 100 as of last Thursday: contained, direction flat, character mixed. Four of its seven buckets sit below 50 (wages against productivity 47, labor 43, shelter 44, breadth 45, with the Cleveland median CPI at 2.96% annualised and the trimmed mean at 2.0%), three sit above (supply and energy 57, the shock bucket, long-run expectations 65, margins 63). The pressure the market is pricing is oil and the fear of oil, not wages, which grew 3.1% in August, the slowest since 2021.