Gold's First Wave Down

Short-term channel says 400. Long-term trend says relax. 2026 says: nothing here.

GLD trades at 408.56 mid-session today, down 1.31%, sitting on the lower rail of a tight 30-day linear regression channel that has done nothing but sell every rally since the early-year top. The chart is telling two stories at once — and the difference between them is the whole investment question.

The short-term story

The structure since February is a textbook ABC correction. Wave A from the highs has carried GLD into the 400–410 zone, exactly where the regression channel's lower band sits. A test of 400 is the path of least resistance. Every bounce inside the channel has been sold; the pivot at 448.38 has flipped from support to ceiling.