The signal, scored

Every Sunday the Weekly Signal defines one signal with measurable lines — and the next edition opens with its verdict. This page is the ledger: no memory-holing, every call and every outcome in one table. Reading the current signal is free; the cumulative record is for registered readers.

Open signal · edition of 2026-07-26 · scored next Sunday

The capex→opex switch is confirmed in the reaction function, not yet in leadership: both sides of the build (Alphabet, Intel) outspent their free cash flow and were sold on beats, while the first attributable agent economics (ServiceNow AI ACV >$1B, SAP backlog +27%) got paid — the same day. Four more capex guides land within 48 hours this week.

The reaction rule on CDNS/MSFT+META/AMZN+AAPL: beats with raised capex guides sold again → trigger one confirmed across the complex; guides paid → the crack was macro, the clock pauses. Operate/Build + Use/Build up on the week → handoff advancing to leadership. SOXX: reclaim of 530–532 held into Friday reopens the bull branch; close below 522.24 extends distribution. NVDA green/flat through the guides keeps the bridge intact.

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