Big Tech — Microsoft up 2.9%, Alphabet down 10%, ServiceNow down 18% after hours; Marvell eyes Lumentum

The Morning 10

Big Tech — Microsoft up 2.9%, Alphabet down 10%, ServiceNow down 18% after hours; Marvell eyes Lumentum

1. 1 Big Tech — Microsoft up 2.9%, Alphabet down 10%, ServiceNow down 18% after hours
2. 2 Optics — Marvell reported in talks to buy Lumentum for around $83B; Lumentum +8.6%, Marvell -8.4% after hours
3. 3 Chips — SOXX +2.1% and DRAM +7.1% on Wednesday, software sat out; neoclouds gave it back after hours
4. 4 Fed — held 10 to 2 with two votes for a hike, December hike now about 86% priced
5. 5 Asia — Kospi gives back 1.2% as Samsung falls 5%; Nikkei up for a second day, BOJ decides Friday
6. 6 Futures — Nasdaq-100 down 1.1% on the Alphabet and ServiceNow drag; VIX 16.9, Money Temperature 52
7. 7 Rubin 100 — up 2.6% on Wednesday, but 115 of 130 names are still losing strength
8. 8 AI indices — Ecosystem up 4.5% on the week leads; HALO flat, AW40 lags
9. 9 Today — ECB at 13:15 UTC, Eli Lilly before the open, Amazon after the close, Cadence graded at the close
10. 10 Outside View — Dan Niles · Niles Investment Management

The full Morning 10 →

The Midday 10

Earnings Tape — Alphabet −13%, ServiceNow −27%, Microsoft's gain gone, Lilly +6%

• 1 Alphabet
• 2 ServiceNow
• 3 Microsoft

All ten lines →

Daily Pulse — Alphabet — Sold on the Cash Line

Alphabet grew revenue 25%, Google Cloud 103% and operating income 30% in the third quarter, and the shares still fell about 10% after hours, from a Wednesday close of 324.89 to a last trade of 292.50. The reason is the cash line: free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion, the second negative quarter in a row, after +$24.6 billion in Q4 2025 and +$10.1 billion in Q1. Capex more than doubled in a year to $51.4 billion while operating cash flow slipped to $42.3 billion from $48.4 billion. The same night Microsoft rose 2.9% and ServiceNow fell 18.1%, so the market is sorting results, not rewarding spending as such. Alphabet's three-session grading window ends with Monday 2 November's close: below 315.14 counts as sold, 334.64 or higher as paid. Amazon, the next cloud spender in the sample, reports tonight with the street at EPS of $1.96 on revenue of about $202.2 billion.

The full Pulse →

On the tape

• Money Temperature · Mixed / transitional — 1 heating / 3 cooling
• HEXA-B.ST PEAD continuation: T+3 ↑LONG confirmed at T+5 (CAR +5.64%)
• IRDM PEAD continuation: T+3 ↑LONG confirmed at T+5 (CAR +4.55%)
• MYCR.ST PEAD continuation: T+3 ↑LONG confirmed at T+5 (CAR +6.89%)
• NOK PEAD reversal: T+3 ↓SHORT faded — T+5 closes +1.13%
• SPOT PEAD continuation: T+3 ↑LONG confirmed at T+5 (CAR +6.55%)
• Cross-asset day: VIX 17.2, DXY 101.93, 10Y 5.04% — risk-on regime
• Euro-AI 50 · 1-month leaders — WKL.AS +23.24% / SMHN.DE -25.70%

The books that day

5 recorded trades: Exited ASX (Derivatives) · Exited NVDA (Derivatives) · Exited PLTR (Derivatives) · Exited SKHY (Derivatives) · Exited WMT (Derivatives). The trade log →