AI Trade — Japan, Korea, Taiwan fall, India rises; Bitcoin under 80,000, gold under 4,000, TLT above 81.50

The Morning 10

AI Trade — Japan, Korea, Taiwan fall, India rises; Bitcoin under 80,000, gold under 4,000, TLT above 81.50

1. 1 Asia — Japan, Korea and Taiwan fall with the AI trade, India and Hong Kong rise
2. 2 Bonds — TLT back above 81.50 as the 10-year yield falls to about 4.91%
3. 3 Bitcoin and Gold — Bitcoin back under 80,000, gold under 4,000
4. 4 Wall Street — the average stock rose 1.2% while the S&P 500 fell; futures down 1.9%
5. 5 Sectors and Factors — health care, real estate and staples up, software and communications down
6. 6 AI Indices — Rubin +6.6% on the week, but most of its names are still losing strength
7. 7 Earnings — Intel −23% and Amazon −7% after hours put a price on the AI bill
8. 8 Earnings Week — where the grades stand before Monday and Tuesday
9. 9 Today — euro-area GDP, Chicago PMI, Exxon Mobil and Chevron before the open
10. 10 Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset Management

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The Midday 10

Sell-Off — Nasdaq −3%, Chips −8%, Bitcoin −4%, Gold −3%; Only Bonds, Oil and Defensives Hold

• 1 The indices — the worst day since June, the VIX above 20
• 2 Bitcoin and gold — the havens fall with stocks
• 3 Bonds and oil — what holds

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Daily Pulse — AI Trade — The Rocky Period May Have Begun

The AI trade may have entered a rocky stretch. Microsoft cut its fiscal-2027 capex forecast to $170 billion from $175 billion as outside GPU capacity slipped into the first half of 2027, Alphabet held its range at $195–205 billion, and Oracle said spending peaks in fiscal 2027 and 2028 before stepping down in 2029. Amazon is the exception, with meaningfully more in 2027. At the same time the market started pricing the core: Alphabet fell 12.6% and ServiceNow 27.0% on Thursday, and Twilio traded 19.9% lower before the open after guiding organic growth down to 11–12%. Since the 22 June chip high our Agentic Winners 40 is up 29.5% but 5.2% under its August peak. What still rises is narrow: AI Users (+16.0% since June), health care at a record, Eli Lilly at a record 1,373.70, Walmart, and a few early winners. Last year's 31 October to 31 December looks like the template: the S&P 500 dipped 4.4% into 20 November and ended flat while software fell 8.5%. We read the year-end rally as a 50/50 call, and a deeper fall in AI names as a correction inside a growing cycle.

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On the tape

• Money Temperature · Mixed / transitional — 2 heating / 1 cooling
• HEXA-B.ST PEAD continuation: T+3 ↑LONG confirmed at T+5 (CAR +8.57%)
• Cross-asset day: VIX 19.4, DXY 101.96, 10Y 4.99% — mixed regime
• STX · PEAD → 0
• PCAR · PEAD → 26
• MOD · PEAD → 0
• IFCN.SW · PEAD ↑ 10
• Euro-AI 50 · 1-month leaders — WKL.AS +25.07% / ATS.VI -28.24%