State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (SPY) — Technical state

Long reads

• Earnings — Post-Earnings Announcement DriftDossier · $29 · 27 Apr 2026The CAR was almost identical at T+3 (−13.97%) and T+63 (−14.03%) — but the underlying mechanic differed: T+3 was the immediate gap-down reaction; T+63 was the SPY rally (+7.14%) that CRM didn't participate in (−6.89% absolute).
• AI Users — Builders Up 66%, the Companies Using AI FlatReport · 25 Oct 2026The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 10.6% and developed and emerging markets outside the US (VEU) 9.2%.
• Long Bond — A Second Gap Higher, and Both Still OpenWeekly Signal · 25 Oct 2026Credo 147.29, a new low; the other three above their lows split Nasdaq 100 fund (QQQ) 704.54 704.47 Thursday, 704.40 Friday touched — closed 7 and 14 cents under S&P 500 fund (SPY) 768.50 / 779.09 759.97 Friday, −0.4% under the 50-day…
• Second-Tier Chips — Back at the July Low, Leg Two BeginsWeekly Signal · 18 Oct 2026
• Retail — the store that wins when money is tight breaks its five-month downtrendChart Pick · 16 Oct 2026Against the consumer sectors of the S&P 500 Table as text Name What it is This year 3 months Since 6 Oct WMT Walmart +5.8% +3.2% +10.0% XLP S&P 500 consumer staples +11.6% +1.7% +6.0% XLY S&P 500 consumer discretionary −5.0%…
• Financials — The Early Warning Has Turned, for NowWeekly Signal · 11 Oct 2026Table as text Episode S&P peak XLF peak XLF ahead by S&P low XLF low XLF ahead by Dot-com Aug 2000 Dec 2000 −4 months Sep 2002 Sep 2002 0 Financial crisis Oct 2007 May 2007 +5 months Feb 2009 Feb 2009 0 2011 Apr 2011 Feb 2011 +2…
• Magnificent Seven — Without Tesla, the Six Are Beating the MarketWeekly Signal · 27 Sept 2026Table as text Basket Week 1 month 3 months 2026 1 year Mag-6 (ex Tesla), equal weight +2.8% +7.9% +22.3% +14.1% +19.3% Mag-7, equal weight +2.7% +7.6% +19.0% +9.6% +14.8% Tesla +2.2% +6.2% −0.8% −17.3% −12.1% S&P 500 (SPY) +1.3% +0.7%…
• Software vs Semis — The Axis TurnedWeekly Signal · 23 Aug 2026The broad-index version: SPXT / SPY over one year.

101 and glossary

• Beta ConvexityGlossaryHow Closelooknet Measures It Closelooknet's market-structure toolbox computes up-beta and down-beta per name against SPY as the benchmark, reporting the convexity gap alongside other structural metrics such as drawdown behavior.
• Bollinger Coiling: When Volatility Compresses Before Expanding101Coils in the macro basket — particularly in SPY, QQQ, and TLT — are disproportionately informative.
• Cascade Tracker: The 5-Domino Model of Regime Breakdown101If pairs break out-of-order (say, TLT-SPY before QQQ-SPY), it signals something unusual about the stress source — rate-driven rather than risk-appetite-driven, for example.
• Cointegration: When the Rules of the Game Change101The SPY/GLD relationship, the equity-bond correlation, the gold-dollar inverse — these are the structural assumptions that underpin portfolio construction.
• Hurst Exponent: Persistence, Mean-Reversion, or Random Walk101For a pair like SPY-GLD, the spread's Hurst tells you whether the current market is treating the relationship as a mean-reverting equilibrium (healthy) or as a trending divergence (breaking).
• Money Temperature: Measuring Regime Intensity, Not Predicting Direction101The practical value comes from cross-reading: when SPY reads 72 and TLT reads 25, that configuration has a name, a history, and actionable implications.
• Sector Relative Strength: RRG Without the Jargon101Time Horizons 21-day RRG : Tactical rotation, useful for short-term positioning 63-day RRG : Medium-term sector cycles, useful for portfolio tilts 252-day RRG : Structural rotation, useful for thematic positioning Closelooknet’s Lab…
• Stack Flip: When Price Crosses the 200-Day Moving Average101Ignoring flips in major macro instruments (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD) means missing the moments when regimes visibly change.

Dailies

• Inflation — Prices Rise 0.4%, the 10-Year Yield Hits 5% and Nvidia Slides Another 6%Midday 10 · 10 Nov 2026
• Chips — Up 6% Without Nvidia: AMD Jumps 11%, Broadcom 8%, Nvidia Slides 6%Midday 10 · 9 Nov 2026SPY at 749.90 is still under its own 50-day average of 765.68, and QQQ at 675.17 under 720.97: the average stock has repaired more than the biggest ones.
• AI Build-Out — Sold Chip Tools, Bought JFrogDaily Pulse · 7 Nov 2026Over the week SOXX lost 13.1 percent, the Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ 5.0 percent to 656.10 and the S&P 500 fund SPY 2.7 percent to 735.29.
• AI Builders — Chips Bounce 4%, AMD Jumps 10% and IREN 20% After a Strong Jobs ReportMidday 10 · 6 Nov 2026SPY at 740.05 is still well below its 50-day average of 766.40, and QQQ below its 722.27: Thursday’s damage is not repaired.
• AI Trade — Kospi Halted, Nikkei Enters a Bear Market After US Chip Stocks Lose 12%Morning 10 · 6 Nov 2026The average stock fell less than the index: the equal-weight S&P fund RSP lost 2.89% against 4.41% for SPY.
• AI Build-Out — Chip Stocks Sink 8%, Nasdaq Drops 4% and the Fear Gauge Jumps 43%Midday 10 · 5 Nov 2026SPY at 743.04, DIA at 520.35 and IWM at 274.77 all trade below their 50-day averages (767.06, 521.05 and 283.19), which all three held on Wednesday.
• AI Trade — Kospi Falls 5.3%, SK Hynix 9.5% and Advantest 14.7% After Qualcomm; Hong Kong Rises 3.5%Morning 10 · 5 Nov 2026SPY closed at 766.81, 25 cents under its 50-day average of 767.06.
• Midterms — Dow Jumps 2.3% and Apple Hits a Record; Data-Center Power Stocks Sink Up to 15%Midday 10 · 4 Nov 2026Unlike Tuesday, the gain is broad: the equal-weight S&P 500 fund RSP is up 1.28%, in step with SPY's 1.22%.